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Sunday, January 29, 2012

Studying the Costa Concordia Grounding

I maintain a work-related blog mostly focused high-scale services, data center design and operations, server hardware design and optimization, high-scale storage software and hardware systems, flash memory, service design principles, power efficiency and power management at http://perspectives.mvdirona.com/. Because most of my work centers around making very high-scale services run well, run reliably, and run economically, I occasionally dig into the details behind engineering disasters whether they be human error, poor design, or equipment failure. Most are a combination of multiple failures and, understanding them better may help us learn how to avoid these problems in the systems we build.

The Costa Concordia grounding of January 13^th 2012 caught my attention partly because of the magnitude of the disaster with property losses over a half billion dollars and significant loss of life and partly because I’m a boater myself.

It’s not often that I write a blog entry that is potential of value to both readers of this boat blog and my work blog Perspectives but I think this might be such a situation so “Studying the Costa Concordia Grounding” is reposted below.

Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.

I first heard the latter part of this famous quote made by US Airmail Pilot E. Hamilton Lee back when I raced cars. At that time, one of the better drivers in town, Gordon Monroe, used a variant of that quote (with pilots replaced by racers) when giving me driving advice. Gord’s basic message was that it is impossible to win a race if you crash out of it.

Nearly all of us have taken the odd chance and made some decisions that, in retrospect, just didn’t make sense from a risk vs reward perspective. Age and experience clearly helps but mistakes still get made and none of us are exempt. Most people’s mistakes at work don’t have life safety consequences and their mistakes are not typically picked up widely by the world news services as was the case in the recent grounding of the Costa Concordia cruise ship. But, we all make mistakes.

I often study engineering disasters and accidents in the belief that understanding mistakes, failures, and accidents deeply is a much lower cost way of learning. My last note on this topic was What Went Wrong at Fukushima Dai-1 where we looked at the nuclear release following the 2011 Tohuku Earthquake and Tsunami.

Living on a boat and cruising extensively (our boat blog is at http://blog.mvdirona.com/) makes me particularly interested in the Costa Concordia incident of January 13^th 2012. The Concordia is a 114,137 gross ton floating city that cost $570m when it was delivered in 2006. It is 952’ long, has 17 decks, and is power by 6 Wartsila diesel engines with a combined output of 101,400 horse power. The ship is capable of 23 kts (26.5 mph) and has a service speed of 21 kts. At capacity, it carries 3,780 passengers with a crew of 1,100.

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_Concordia_disaster:

The Italian cruise ship Costa Concordia partially sank on Friday the 13th of January 2012 after hitting a reef off the Italian coast and running aground at Isola del Giglio, Tuscany, requiring the evacuation of 4,197 people on board. At least 16 people died, including 15 passengers and one crewman; 64 others were injured (three seriously) and 17 are missing. Two passengers and a crewmember trapped below deck were rescued.

The captain, Francesco Schettino, had deviated from the ship's computer-programmed route in order to treat people on Giglio Island to the spectacle of a close sail-past. He was later arrested on preliminary charges of multiple manslaughter, failure to assist passengers in need and abandonment of ship. First Officer Ciro Ambrosio was also arrested.

It is far too early to know exactly what happened on the Costa Concordia and, because there was loss of life and considerable property damage, the legal proceedings will almost certainly run for years. Unfortunately, rather than illuminating the mistakes and failures and helping us avoid them in the future, these proceedings typically focus on culpability and distributing blame. That’s not our interest here. I’m mostly focused on what happened and getting all the data I could find on the table to see what lessons the situation yields.

A fellow boater, Milt Baker pointed me towards an excellent video that offers considerable data into exactly what happened in the final 1 hour and 30 min. You can find the video at: Grounding of Costa Concordia. Another interesting data source is the video commentary available at: John Konrad Narrates the Final Maneuvers of the Costa Concordia. In what follows, I’ve combined snapshots of the first video intermixed with data available from other sources including the second video.

The source data for the two videos above is a wonderful safety system called Automatic Identification System. AIS is a safety system required on larger commercial craft and also used on many recreational boats as well. AIS works by frequently transmitting (up to every 2 seconds for fast moving ships) via VHF radio the ships GPS position, course, speed, name, and other pertinent navigational data. Receiving stations on other ships automatically plot transmitting AIS targets on electronic charts. Some receiving systems are also able to plot an expected target course and compute the time and location of the estimated closest point of approach. AIS an excellent tool to help reduce the frequency of ship-to-ship collisions.

Since AIS data is broadcast over VHF radio, it is widely available to both ships and land stations and this data can be used in many ways. For example, if you are interested in the boats in Seattle’s Elliott Bay, have a look at MarineTraffic.com and enter “Seattle” as the port in the data entry box near the top left corner of the screen (you might see our boat Dirona there as well).

AIS data is often archived and, because of that, we have a very precise record of the Costa Concordia’s course as well as core navigational data as it proceeded towards the rocks. In the pictures that follow, the red images of the ship are at the ship’s position as transmitted by the Costa Concordia’s AIS system. The black line between these images is the interpolated course between these known locations. The video itself (Costa Concordia Interpolated.wmv) uses a roughly 5:1 time compression.

In this screen shot, you can see the Concordia already very close to the Italian Isol del Giglio. From the BBC report the Captain has said he turned too late (Costa Concordia: Captain Schettino ‘Turned Too Late’). From that article:

According to the leaked transcript quoted by Italian media, Capt Schettino said the route of the Costa Concordia on the first day of its Mediterranean cruise had been decided as it left the port of Civitavecchia, near Rome, on Friday.

The captain reportedly told the investigating judge in the city of Grosseto that he had decided to sail close to Giglio to salute a former captain who had a home on the Tuscan island. "I was navigating by sight because I knew the depths well and I had done this maneuver three or four times," he reportedly said.

"But this time I ordered the turn too late and I ended up in water that was too shallow. I don't know why it happened."

In this screen shot of the boat at 20:44:47 just prior to the grounding, you can see the boat turned to 348.8 degrees but the massive 114,137 gross ton vessel is essentially plowing sideways through the water on a course of 332.7 degrees. The Captain can and has turned the ship with the rudder but, at 15.6 kts, it does not follow the exact course steered with inertia tending to widen and straiten the intended turn.

Given the speed of the boat and nearness of shore at this point, the die is cast and the ship is going to hit ground.

This screen shot was taken is just past the point of impact. You will note that it has slowed to 14.0 kts. You might also notice the Captain is turning aggressively to the starboard. He has the ship turned to a 8.9 degrees heading whereas the actual ships course lags behind at 356.2 degrees.

This screen shot is only 44 seconds after the previous one but the boat has already slowed from 14.0 kts to 8.1 and is still slowing quickly. Some of the slowing will have come from the grounding itself but passengers report that they heard the boat hard astern after the grounding.

You can also see the captain has swung the helm over from the starboard course he was steering trying to avoid the rocks over to port course now that he has struck them. This is almost certainly in an effort to minimize damage. What makes this (possibly counter-intuitive) decision a good one is the ships pivot point is approximately 1/3 of the way back from the bow so turning to port (towards the shore) will actually cause the stern to rotate away from the rocks they just struck.

The ship decelerated quickly to just under 6.0 knots but, in the two minutes prior to this screen shot, it has only slowed a further 0.9 kts down to 5.1. There were reports of a loss of power on the Concordia. Likely what happened is ship was hard astern taking off speed until a couple of minutes prior to this screen shot when water intrusion caused a power failure. The ship is a diesel electric and likely lost power to its main prop due to rapid water ingress.

At 5 kts and very likely without main engine power, the Concordia is still going much too quickly to risk running into the mud and sand shore so the Captain now turns hard away from shore and he is heading back out into the open channel.

With the helm hard over the starboard with the likely assistance of the bow thrusters the ship is turning hard which is pulling speed off fairly quickly. It is now down to 3.0 kts and it continues to slow.

The Concordia is now down to 1.6 kts and the Captain is clearly using the bow thrusters heavily as the bow continues to rotate quickly. He has now turned to a 41 degree heading.

It now has been just over 29 min since the ship first struck the rocks. It has essentially stopped and the bow is being brought all the way back round using bow thrusters in an effort to drive the ship back in towards shore presumably because the Captain believes it is at risk of sinking so he is seeking shallow water.

The Captain continues to force the Concordia to shore under bow thruster power. In this video narrative (John Konrad Narrates the Final Maneuvers of the Costa Concordia), the commentator reported that the combination of bow thrusters and the prevailing currents where being used in combination by the Captain to drive the boat into shore.

A further 11 min and 22 seconds have past and the ship has now accelerated back up to 0.9 kts now heading towards shore.

It has been more than an hour and 11 minutes since the original contact with the rocks and the Costa Concordia is now at rest in its final grounding point.

The Coast Guard transcript of the radio communications with the Captain are at Costa Concordia Transcript: Coastguard Orders Captain to return to Stricken Ship. In the following text De Falco is the Coast Guard Commander and Schettino is the Captain of the Costa Concordia:

De Falco: "This is De Falco speaking from Livorno. Am I speaking with the commander?"

Schettino: "Yes. Good evening, Cmdr De Falco."

De Falco: "Please tell me your name."

Schettino: "I'm Cmdr Schettino, commander."

De Falco: "Schettino? Listen Schettino. There are people trapped on board. Now you go with your boat under the prow on the starboard side. There is a pilot ladder. You will climb that ladder and go on board. You go on board and then you will tell me how many people there are. Is that clear? I'm recording this conversation, Cmdr Schettino …"

Schettino: "Commander, let me tell you one thing …"

De Falco: "Speak up! Put your hand in front of the microphone and speak more loudly, is that clear?"

Schettino: "In this moment, the boat is tipping …"

De Falco: "I understand that, listen, there are people that are coming down the pilot ladder of the prow. You go up that pilot ladder, get on that ship and tell me how many people are still on board. And what they need. Is that clear? You need to tell me if there are children, women or people in need of assistance. And tell me the exact number of each of these categories. Is that clear? Listen Schettino, that you saved yourself from the sea, but I am going to … really do something bad to you … I am going to make you pay for this. Go on board, (expletive)!"

Schettino: "Commander, please …"

De Falco: "No, please. You now get up and go on board. They are telling me that on board there are still …"

Schettino: "I am here with the rescue boats, I am here, I am not going anywhere, I am here …"

De Falco: "What are you doing, commander?"

Schettino: "I am here to co-ordinate the rescue …"

De Falco: "What are you co-ordinating there? Go on board! Co-ordinate the rescue from aboard the ship. Are you refusing?"

Schettino: "No, I am not refusing."

De Falco: "Are you refusing to go aboard, commander? Can you tell me the reason why you are not going?"

Schettino: "I am not going because the other lifeboat is stopped."

De Falco: "You go aboard. It is an order. Don't make any more excuses. You have declared 'abandon ship'. Now I am in charge. You go on board! Is that clear? Do you hear me? Go, and call me when you are aboard. My air rescue crew is there."

Schettino: "Where are your rescuers?"

De Falco: "My air rescue is on the prow. Go. There are already bodies, Schettino."

Schettino: "How many bodies are there?"

De Falco: "I don't know. I have heard of one. You are the one who has to tell me how many there are. Christ!"

Schettino: "But do you realize it is dark and here we can't see anything …"

De Falco: "And so what? You want to go home, Schettino? It is dark and you want to go home? Get on that prow of the boat using the pilot ladder and tell me what can be done, how many people there are and what their needs are. Now!"

Schettino: "… I am with my second in command."

De Falco: "So both of you go up then … You and your second go on board now. Is that clear?"

Schettino: "Commander, I want to go on board, but it is simply that the other boat here … there are other rescuers. It has stopped and is waiting …"

De Falco: "It has been an hour that you have been telling me the same thing. Now, go on board. Go on board! And then tell me immediately how many people there are there."

Schettino: "OK, commander."

De Falco: "Go, immediately!"

At least 16 died in the accident and 17 were still missing when this was written (Costa Concordia Disaster).The Captain of the Costa Concordia, Francesco Schettino, has been charged with manslaughter and abandoning ship.

At the time of the grounding, the ship was carrying 2,200 metric tons of heavy fuel oil and 185 metric tons of diesel and remains environmental risk remains (Costa Concordia Salvage Experts Ready to Begin Pumping Fuel from Capsized Cruise Ship Off Coast of Italy). The 170 year old salvage firm Smit Salvage will be leading the operation.

All situations are complex and few disasters have only a single cause. However, the facts as presented to this point pretty strongly towards pilot error as the primary contributor in this event. The Captain is clearly very experienced and his ship handling after the original grounding appear excellent. But, it’s hard to explain why the ship was that close to the rocks, the captain has reported that he turned too late, and public reports have him on the phone at or near the time of the original grounding.

What I take away from the data points presented here is that experience, ironically, can be our biggest enemy. As we get increasingly proficient at a task, we often stop paying as much attention. And, with less dedicated focus on a task, over time, we run the risk of a crucial mistake that we probably wouldn’t have made when we were effectively less experienced and perhaps less skilled. There is danger in becoming comfortable.

The videos referenced in the above can be found at:

· Grounding of Costa Concordia Interpolated

· gCaptain’s John Konrad Narrates the Final Maneuvers of the Costa Concordia

If you are interested in reading more:

· http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2012/01/costa_concordia_salvage_expert.html

· http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16620807

· http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/divers-in-grounded-costa-concordia-112/2012/01/25/gIQAOkD2PQ_video.html

· http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16620807

· http://www.foxnews.com/slideshow/world/2012/01/14/luxury-ship-runs-aground-off-italy-bodies-found/#slide=22

· http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9042826/Wife-of-Costa-Concordia-captain-says-it-is-not-for-those-on-land-to-judge-her-husband.html

· http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/interactive-graphics/9018076/Concordia-How-the-disaster-unfolded.html

· http://news.qps.nl.s3.amazonaws.com/Grounding+Costa+Concordia.pdf

· http://www.bellenews.com/2012/01/14/world/europe-news/italian-captain-of-costa-concordia-cruise-ship-has-been-arrested/

· http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_Concordia

· http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_Concordia_disaster

Sunday, January 29, 2012 11:49:07 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)

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On the Water

Friday, January 20, 2012

More snow ... and freezing rain

Ring-billed gulls at Bell Harbor Marina

Sunday's snow mostly was gone by Monday, but we got another load later in the week. The weather system was difficult to forecast. Although the snowfall was less than the record originally anticipated, enough still fell to keep anyone off the roads who didn't need to be out. And we got an unusual freezing rain event. The combination knocked out power for many folks on the Eastside. The past few day's below-freezing temperatures have eased off now, and the snow is melting. But conditions still are pretty bad on many city streets, with power still out for a number of Eastside residents.

Below are a couple of images taken from our boat at Bell Harbor Marina. On the left someone is using a leaf blower to clear the ramp, and we actually had enough to warrant using a snow blower on the docks.

We had several inches piled on our decks. When building the boat, we added extra insulation above the overhead panels to improve heating efficiency for high-latitude cruising. Judging by the lack of snowmelt on our decks, given we keep the boat 72F inside, the insulation is working.

Novik from Skol checked out the snow for a bit. Spitfire left a few prints, but generally wasn't impressed.

The freezing rain coated our our rails in ice. The last time we remember seeing our deck rails frozen like that was several years back when saltwater froze on our rails and decks. After the freezing rain, the snow was like a hardshell candy: a solid crust on the outside, with soft and fluffy snow on the inside.

By Thursday, the snow path cleared on Wednesday was starting to fill in. The picture on the right below is taken along the old waterfront streetcar tracks across the road from the marina.

Lots of marina space. Even in the winter, it's unusual for the guest dock to be completely empty near the weekend.

Downtown Seattle was pretty quiet on Thursday. Some of the steeper roads were blocked for traffic. Many businesses were closed, and few cars or people were about. Pike Place Market was open, but unusually quiet, with a handful of vendors open and not many customers.

Friday, January 20, 2012 2:12:53 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)

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On the Water

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Snow

Skol at Bell Harbor Marina

Snow is fairly rare in the Puget Sound, so a layer of the white stuff always is a treat. We'd spent the weekend in LaConner, where 2-3 inches of snow had fallen overnight, and left around 7 this morning for the run back to Seattle. The trip through Swinomish Channel was magical in the dark. With few people about that early, the snow was mostly undistrubed and lay thickly on the rails and every flat surface of the many boats tied off on either side of the waterway. The white blanket softened all the hard edges and reflected the faintest light. Even the most tired-looking vessel we passed looked shiny and new. In the shoreside houses beyond town, a few early risers were reading the morning paper with a fire burning in their hearths. Their house lights cast a welcoming, golden glow onto the white landscape. At the steep cliffs near the turn west, snow clung to the rocky walls and filled the trees.

Some of the communites farther south had snow, but there wasn't much along the south end of Whidbey Island, so we weren't expecting any snow in Seattle.

On VHF, we could hear Vessel Traffic talking about restricted visibility in Elliott Bay. It was snowing fairly hard as we approached, we couldn't see the other side of the bay. The storm lifted as we neared downtown, and West Seattle appeared, presumably with a fresh coating of snow.

And an inch or two had fallen at Bell Harbor. The classic wooden sailboat Skol looked wonderful with a layer of white.

Sunday, January 15, 2012 7:49:14 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)

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On the Water

Sunday, January 08, 2012

Winter lights

One upside to winter's shorter days is the nighttime lights. Whether from a passing ship, a moored boat, or a nearby house, we enjoy being snug inside with a view to lights twinkling in the distance. The show gets even better during the Christmas season, when colorful holiday light displays are put on afloat and ashore. Much of the time we spent in Barkley Sound over Christmas was away from any signs of civilization, and the nights were pitch black. We didn't see much in the way of winter light displays until arriving in the Gulf Islands.

Here's our log from the Sidney to Port Madison, or you can display them on the live map view.

1/1/12: Sunrise over Olympics

Happy New Year. The winds were still blowing from the east as we left Sidney Spit, and predicted to hit gale force this afternoon. We'd left Effingham at exactly the right time. Yesterday the winds at La Perouse bank were blowing 13 at 7am and were up to 21 by noon. By mid-afternoon the winds were blowing in the high 20s, gusting into the mid 30's, and were still at that speed this morning.

1/1/12: Tsehum Harbor Public Wharf

Fishing fleet on the Tsehum Harbor Public Wharf. We took a tour around Van Isle Marina along the south side of Tsehum Harbor. The place was full of Nordhavns--we saw two 62s, three 55s, a 47 and several 40s.

1/1/12: S/V Kestral

S/V Kestral heading out for a rum race.

1/1/12: Close quarters

Spitfire looking nervous as we turn around in the marina. He's not big on close quarters.

1/1/12: Abandoned cabin

Abandoned cabin on Harlock Islet.

1/1/12: Pocket tug

Pocket tug in Page Passage.

1/1/12: Lewis Bay

We're anchored in Lewis Bay, on the northwest end of Coal Island, with a view to the ferries at Swartz Bay. The Coastal Celebration and the Mayne Queen already were at the dock when we dropped hook, and the Spirit of Vancouver Island and the Skeena Queen arrived shortly after. Winter allows us different choiced in anchorages than the summer, partly due to less crowds but also due to prevailing winds. Lewis Bay would not be a great summer anchorage with a northwest wind blowing, but we've got gale force winter southerlies in the forecast and Lewis Bay is well-sheltered from that direction.

1/1/12: Dockside Grill

We ran the dinghy to Tsehum Harbor for a quick of the area and to see if the Dockside Grill was open. It was closed for New Year's Day. Bummer--their view looked awesome.

1/1/12: Marina beacon

This beacon is in the middle of one of the fairways at Van Isle Marina. And they're serious--a big rock is underneath that post.

1/2/12: Sunrise

Sunrise over the head of Lewis Bay.

1/2/12: Ferry terminal

We love having a view to a ferry run, and being able to see the terminal was even better. Winter is a great time for ferry watching--the late dawn and early dusk means the ferries are lit up more often than in summer. From the anchorage we also could see several large cargo ships way down Satellite Channel towards Cowichan, and lights on the hills on the southern tip of of Saltspring Island.

1/2/12: Spirit of VI

Spirit of Vancouver Island off Fir Cone Point, at the northern tip of Cole Island. Lewis Bay turned out to be an excellent anchorage. We were a little concerned that the ferry wakes might be a problem, but no wakes of any note came through the entire time we were there, even when the big Spirit-class ferries came booming through.

1/2/12: Coastal Celebration

The Coastal Celebration is the newest BC Ferry. It sailed from Germany through the Panama Canal, arriving in June of 2008. The bridge is unusually low in the bow compared to the other ships of that size.

1/2/12: Coast Guard

Canadian Coast Guard ships moored in Patricia Bay. The Institute of Ocean Sciences is in the background.

1/2/12: Brentwood Bay

We're anchored off another ferry dock--this one a lot smaller than the last though. The previous time we were in the area, the temperature was below freezing for days. Todd Inlet to our south was completely iced in. Brentwood Bay is another good Christmas anchorage-- houses pack the shores, many with holiday lights.

1/2/12: S/V Cetacea

S/V Cetacea at anchor nearby in Brentwood Bay. Everthing was painted black, even the kayaks.

1/2/12: The Sea Lion

The century-old tug Sea Lion on the docks at Brentwood Bay. We've seen this boat as far north as the Nakwakto Rapids, working as a floating resort, and more recently moored at the Vancouver Maritime Museum on False Creek.

1/2/12: Public dock

Looking west across the public dock into Brentwood Bay.

1/2/12: Brentwood Bay Resort

We had an excellent lunch at the pub in the fabulous glass and cedar Brentwood Bay Resort.

1/3/12: Ganges Harbour

Ganges is a busy water aerodrome. The planes run fairly close to the anchored boats--it's a pretty exciting show. The harbor is open to the south, and big southerly blows will generate waves. But the waves tend to be less than a foot or so and not uncomfortable. We love anchoring here in the winter--crowds are less and the shores all around twinkle with light after dark.

1/3/12: Cape Kuper

Cape-class 47' motor lifeboat Cape Kuper heads out from its base in Ganges.

1/4/12: School bus

Water taxi The Graduate arrives into Ganges. While we watched from Shipstones pub last night, several dozen kids boarded this boat, Scolarship and Ganges Hawk. The vessels returned back to Ganges a few hours later. They headed out again this morning and all returned about the same time.

1/4/12: Seahorse

Seahorse moored behind us, with the Coast Guard station in the background.

1/4/12: Ducks

Finally got our ducks all in a row. :)

1/5/12: Sunrise

Sunrise looking south through Swanson Channel. We ended up spending an extra night in Ganges, just catching up on various projects, watching the floatplanes and hitting each of the two waterfront pubs for dinner.

1/5/12: Rainbow

Rainbow over Mount Tuam, Saltspring Island.

1/5/12: Wind in Haro Strait

A gale warning was in effect for the Strait of Juan de Fuca, east entrance. In Haro Strait the winds were gusting to nearly 40 knots from the southwest. We were expecting to take real pounding when we rounded Gonzales Pt along the southern tip of Vancouver Island. But the gale warning had ended and winds had calmed by the time we got there, and the seas were smooth.

1/5/12: Esquimalt Harbor

HMCS Algonquin and HMCS Regina just inside the entrance to Esquimalt Harbour, with HMCS Protecteur behind. Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Esquimalt covers 10,300 acres on both sides of Esquimalt Harbor and employs some 4,000 military and 2,000 civilian personnel. Their primary misson is to support Canada's Pacific Fleet. Esquimalt is the first Secret Coast destination we've visited in the 52. Other than the Desolation Sound trip last Christmas, we've not been up the Inside Passage beyond the Gulf Islands. Both summer Alaska trips were offshore.

1/5/12: Navy ships

HMCS Saskatoon and HMCS Brandon moored deep inside the harbor. Alongside likely are HMCS Whitehorse and HMCS Yellowknife.

1/5/12: Coastal Inspiration

BC Ferry Coastal Inspiration moored alongside the Esquimalt Graving Dock. The 1,200' dry dock is the largest on the Pacific coast and can handle som 90% of the world's ships.

1/5/12: Six Mile House

Pints of Kilkenny at Six Mile House. In the past we landed below the pub and climbed up through their garden. They've put a fence up, however, so we couldn't go up that way. We instead landed under the bridge and climbed up to the Parsons Bridge Park path and then walked up to the road.

1/6/12: Dawn

Dawn looking from the anchorage toward Dockyard, CFB Esquimalt's main facility. The Olympic Mountains are in the distance. Some of the base lights still are visible, but nothing compared to the display at night. One of Esquimalt Harbor's many attractions, especially in the winter, is the nighttime view of the brightly-lit base.

1/6/12: Sir Wilfred Laurier

CCGS Sir Wilfred Laurier, a light icebreaker, arriving in Esquimalt Harbor to tend the buoy at the entrance.

1/6/12: Breakwater

Sunrise over the Ogden Point breakwater.

1/6/12: Float plane

Float plan readying for takeoff in the inner habor.

1/6/12: Victoria Inner Harbour

The Causeway floats usually are near empty in the winter, but were packed when we arrived on Friday morning. The Victoria Harbor Authority now allows winter moorage there, so most of the boats were somewhat permanent.

1/6/12: Coho

The Coho rounding Laurel Point on arrival into Victoria. It sure looks like a tight squeeze for a ship that size.

1/6/12: Bastion Square

Historic Bastion Square, packed with tourists in the summer, is pretty quiet today.

1/6/12: Murchie's

We had an excellent breakfast at Murchie's, and spent the day in Victoria touring around and visiting with family. And, of course, we managed to fit a pub stop in there too.

1/7/12: Port Madison

Paul Johansen at its mooring in Port Madison. We left Victoria about 5am this morning, and arrived here at 2pm. We only ever to go Port Madison in the winter--its too crowded other times. The harbor is an excellent winter anchorage: snug with good wind protection, and in the early evening the lights from the houses on the hills above cast a warm glow.

Previous log post for this trip: Weather window

Sunday, January 08, 2012 11:06:43 AM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)

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On the Water

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Weather window

Lucky Creek falls

A storm warning was in effect, with winds expected to reach 40-50 knots in the afternoon. More systems were on the way. The only obvious weather break coming up in the next few days was a several-hour window starting sometime after midnight, when winds would be 15 knots or less. We weren't pressed for time yet, so had no reason to risk rough seas. But we did want to take advantage of the window if conditions looked good. We also wanted to avoid entering an anchorage in the dark. Since the run would be 10-12 hours, and we only had 7-8 hours of daylight, we'd have to leave or arrive in the dark, or both. If we have to navigate an anchorage at night, we'd rather leave from one that we've recently entered and are familiar with. Leaving between midnight and 2am would allow us to arrive well before dusk.

Here's our log from the Ucluelet to Sidney, or you can display them on the live map view.

12/29/11: Red sky at morning ...

Last night we recorded winds over 30-knots, but the seas are calm this morning. We've got another storm warning in effect though: Red sky at night, sailor's delight. Red sky at morning, sailor take warning.

12/29/11: Seal show

A seal put on an energetic show just off the back deck. It leapt, jumped and splashed for ages.

12/29/11: Whiskey Dock

We tied off at a public dock, Whiskey Dock, to walk through town. A dramatic cedar commercial complex, overlooking the waterfront, is nearing completion in the background.

12/29/11: Ucluelet Aquarium

Part of that new complex is the Ucluelet Aquarium.

12/29/11: Driftwood flower

Near the north end of town, someone has built amazing varnished driftwood sculptures. This flower stands perhaps 10' of the ground and is at least 5' in diameter.

12/29/11: Driftwood octopus

Another spectacular sculpture, this one of an octopus.

12/29/11: Drill bit art

At the foot of a nearby driveway, three drill bits were mounted on each entry post. Ucluelet is full of unusual creations like this.

12/29/11: Small Craft Harbor

The Ucluelet Small Craft Harbor. We're anchored on the other side of the buildings in the background.

12/29/11: Cynamoka House

We'd not had breakfast yet, and were hoping to find a nice coffee house. Cynamoka House and Guest Suites fit the bill.

12/29/11: Breakfast

Great coffee in a bottomless cup and delicious fresh-baked muffins hit the spot.

12/29/11: Barometer falling

The barometer fell 21 mb, from 1011 to 990, in the past 12 hours. Another big system is coming through.

12/29/11: Big winds

The winds were strong when we arrived, but really are building now. You can see the calm weather that we had this morning, sandwiched between big blows.

12/29/11: Boat movement at anchor

The chart plotter track shows where the winds have been coming while we've been anchored here. We've spent little time drifting around the anchor and most of the time blown hard to the northwest and southeast.

12/30/11: Sea lions

Sea lions seem to have taken over one of the Ucluelet docks. Perhaps thirty lounged there each time we passed, and we could hear them barking as we walked through town yesterday.

12/30/11: Exploding wave

Wave exploding against the shore at the Crow Islets. The barometer bottomed out at 990 last night, but still is at 992 this morning. A gale warning is in effect, with winds expected to be northwest 35 to 45. The winds are in the high 20s now with gusts into the 30s.

12/30/11: Surf

Surf crashing against Page Island, with wind blowing the wavetops off.

12/30/11: Wind-streaked waves

Wind-streaked waves as we head into Peacock Channel. We'll have a brief weather window early tomorrow morning, with winds dropping to 15 knots sometime after midnight, but rising to 20-25 tomorrow morning and 30-40 tomorrow afternoon with more systems on the way later in the week. We thought hard about leaving then. But the window just seemed too small, and we weren't pressed for time yet, so we had no reason to risk rough seas.

12/30/11: Ruins of Ecoole

In the 1920s and 1930s, Ecoole was a BC Packers Pilchard Reduction plant with a small supporting settlement. The site was abandoned in the 1940s and this is pretty much all that is left. Because the Vancouver Island's west coast was populated so early and so heavily, it also suffered through many abandoned enterprises and communities as their resources waned or business moved elsewhere. Ruins are common in Barkley Sound and farther up the island's west coast, much more than at other places along the BC shoreline.

12/30/11: Floathomes, Rainy Bay

We're considering a run to Port Alberni tomorrow--while winds have been fierce throughout Barkley Sound, the highest wind speed in Port Alberni over the past 24 hours was 4 knots. Big outflow winds were blowing down-inlet when the weather was cold a week or so back, but the winter storms don't seem to reach there. The cove at the head of Rainy Bay was a potential anchorage for the night With a string of a dozen or more floathomes along the west shore, however, and boats coming and going, it didn't feel private enough.

12/30/11: Canadian flag

A Canadian flag is painted high on the cliff near the cut to Useless Bay. The inscription with it reads "1965 Whitehurst". We're not sure what this refers to--perhaps a tug name?

12/30/11: Rainy Bay

We considered anchoring in the northeast portion of Rainy Bay, but it felt pretty exposed and also not very private. Several small boats were about and a couple of fair-sized houses were ashore.

12/30/11: Effingham Bay

We're back at Effingham Bay. The weather forecast worsened to storm warning 40-50 knots for this afternoon, but the weather window has increased. Winds are expected to drop to 15 before tomorrow morning, and instead of rising to 20-25 tomorrow morning, they'll rise to 20 knots late tomorrow morning. We'll keep an eye on the weather and if conditions look good, we'll head out sometime early tomorrow morning.

12/30/11: Barometer back up

Conditions aren't good yet though--the barometer was 992 when we left Ucluelet this morning and by 5pm was 1009. Gusts to nearly 50 knots in Imperial Eagle Channel heeled the boat over 4 degrees as we approached Effingham Island. 20-30-knot southwest winds are blowing through the anchorage, bringing 1-3' waves. The boat is pulled back on the anchor a long way from where we set, but isn't undulating much in the waves. With good holding, 8:1 scope on an all-chain rode, and tons of swing room, we're safe and comfortable inside.

12/31/11, 3:00am: Pachena Point

We got up at midnight and checked the weather. Conditions definately were calming down out there. Winds were averaging 15 NW on the latest lighthouse weather reports. The seas were 10-12' on our beam coming out of Barkley Sound, but not really a problem. And once we turned towards Juan de Fuca Strait, they'd be behind us. Even better.

12/31/11, 7:30am: Juan de Fuca Strait

We picked an excellent weather window. Seas now are near calm, with 10-20-knot winds on our sterm giving us a nice speed push. We'll be into the Victoria area by noon.

12/31/11, 10:15am: Olympic Mountains

Snow-covered Olympic Mountains. We're making excellent time--with a push from the current and the wind behind us, we're doing almost 10 knots.

12/31/11: Race Rocks

Conditions here can be wicked when wind blows against a several-knot current. But the waters are calm now.

12/31/11: Coho

The Coho heading to Port Angeles from Victoria.

12/31/11: Pilot

Pilot boat returning to the Victoria Pilot Station.

12/31/11: Golfing

Golf with a view at the Victoria Golf Club.

12/31/11: Surf kayaker

A half dozen kayakers were surfing the waves off Cadbora Point.

12/31/11, 2:00pm: Sidney Spit

Smooth seas the rest of the way. We're anchored at Sidney Spit and will take the dinghy across to Sidney for lunch at the Rumrunner Pub overlooking Haro Strait.

12/31/11: New Year's Eve

We found Gray Matter moored at Sidney and spent New Year's Eve with Mark Mohler, Christine Guo and friends. We had a cold dinghy ride back to Sidney Spit after--the winds had come up from the east and the water was quite choppy.

Previous log post for this trip: Christmas Cruise 2011: The Wild Pacific Coast

Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:37:58 PM (Pacific Standard Time, UTC-08:00)

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